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"https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44397450" }, { "id": "post-44395055", "topic_id": "44395055", "published_utc": "2026-10-16T14:34:42Z", "authorAction": "小顾自述买入 NBIS，并割掉一只亏损约 20% 的未具名股票。", "decision": "按反向规则，拟观察 NBIS 空头；未具名卖出不生成反向买入。", "status": "pending", "statusLabel": "待观察 · 未纳入回放", "execution": "最早可用入场点：美东 10/19 常规开盘。未录入模拟成交。", "reason": "发言已在 10/16 常规开盘之后；不追溯至作者自报买价，也不补造被卖股票。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44395055" }, { "id": "post-44382010", "topic_id": "44382010", "published_utc": "2026-10-16T05:31:42Z", "authorAction": "小顾自述买入 Google、AVGO、ORCL。", "decision": "按反向规则，拟观察 AVGO、ORCL 空头；Google 股份类别待核验。", "status": "pending", "statusLabel": "待观察 · 未纳入回放", "execution": "AVGO、ORCL 最早可用入场点：美东 10/16 常规开盘。未录入模拟成交。", "reason": "后续完整持有窗口未纳入；Google 的 GOOG/GOOGL 类别尚不明确。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44382010" }, { "id": "post-44377841", "topic_id": "44377841", "published_utc": "2026-10-16T01:38:52Z", "authorAction": "小顾自述此前以 109 卖出 BABA。", "decision": "按反向规则，拟观察 BABA 买入信号。", "status": "pending", "statusLabel": "待观察 · 未纳入回放", "execution": "最早可用入场点：美东 10/16 常规开盘。未录入模拟成交。", "reason": "本次完整行情截止 10/15；不能用披露前的卖价 109 当成跟随者买入价。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44377841" }, { "id": "post-44373983", "topic_id": "44373983", "published_utc": "2026-10-15T16:20:56Z", "authorAction": "小顾说清仓的票随后上涨。", "decision": "模型决定：跳过。", "status": "skipped", "statusLabel": "规则决定跳过", "execution": "没有模拟成交。", "reason": "无法核定完整卖出标的；评论和标签不替代本人明确操作。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44373983" }, { "id": "post-44344137", "topic_id": "44344137", "published_utc": "2026-10-14T23:53:14Z", "authorAction": "小顾自述部分持仓被强平。", "decision": "模型决定：跳过。", "status": "skipped", "statusLabel": "规则决定跳过", "execution": "没有模拟成交。", "reason": "缺少明确被卖出的标的；不能根据标签猜测反向买入对象。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44344137" }, { "id": "post-44286742", "topic_id": "44286742", "published_utc": "2026-10-12T14:05:06Z", "authorAction": "小顾加仓 ALB、UBER、AA、RKLB，并新开 CRWV、SKHX。", "decision": "模型决定：分别建立 ALB、UBER、AA、RKLB、CRWV、SKHX 的理论空头，每只占初始本金 1/6。", "status": "closed", "statusLabel": "历史回放已平仓", "execution": "美东 10/13 开盘建仓 → 10/15 收盘回补；本条 6 笔扣假设成本盈亏 +$5,106.87。", "reason": "模型当时没有这些多头仓位，因此反向动作是理论做空，不能称为卖掉已有持仓。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44286742" }, { "id": "post-44264322", "topic_id": "44264322", "published_utc": "2026-10-09T15:58:47Z", "authorAction": "小顾描述多只持仓亏损。", "decision": "模型决定：不新增操作。", "status": "skipped", "statusLabel": "规则决定跳过", "execution": "没有模拟成交。", "reason": "持仓亏损描述不是明确的新买卖指令。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44264322" }, { "id": "post-44240951", "topic_id": "44240951", "published_utc": "2026-10-08T14:40:05Z", "authorAction": "小顾说“再次出手 RKLB”，没有明确买卖方向。", "decision": "模型决定：跳过，不根据猜测建立反向仓位。", "status": "skipped", "statusLabel": "规则决定跳过", "execution": "没有模拟成交，也不占用资金槽位。", "reason": "方向证据不足。可切换“含模糊信号”查看不同解释的影响。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44240951" }, { "id": "post-44175896", "topic_id": "44175896", "published_utc": "2026-10-02T15:30:56Z", "authorAction": "小顾自述：西数 WDC 割肉卖出。", "decision": "模型决定：反向买入 WDC，使用初始本金的 1/6。", "status": "closed", "statusLabel": "历史回放已平仓", "execution": "美东 10/05 开盘 430.50 买入 → 10/07 收盘 405.42 退出；扣假设成本盈亏 −$1,005.33。", "reason": "明确卖出信号可识别标的；按下一个常规开盘执行，持有三交易日。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44175896" } ] }, { "id": "ambiguous", "label": "含模糊信号", "description": "把 10/8 RKLB“再次出手”推定为买入，提前建立空头；持仓期间忽略 10/12 重复信号。3 个发帖事件。", "metrics": { "grossPct": 3.1783973791108173, "netPct": 2.8905222706906817, "netPnl": 2890.5222706906816, "endEquity": 102890.52227069068, "costs": 287.87510842013535, "posts": 3, "tradeCount": 7, "wins": 4, "losses": 3 }, "forwardMetrics": { "grossPct": -3.1783973791108173, "netPct": -3.4274597021428246, "netPnl": -3427.4597021428244, "endEquity": 96572.54029785718, "costs": 249.0623230320075, "posts": 3, "tradeCount": 7, 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"qqqEquity": 100134.68759591646, "forwardEquity": 99548.7687726388 }, { "date": "2026-10-06", "netEquity": 99228.94579945799, "qqqEquity": 100211.64317964457, "forwardEquity": 100731.15465716302 }, { "date": "2026-10-07", "netEquity": 98994.67363530779, "qqqEquity": 100150.86403772158, "forwardEquity": 100929.75231094776 }, { "date": "2026-10-08", "netEquity": 98994.67363530779, "qqqEquity": 100150.86403772158, "forwardEquity": 100929.75231094776 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "netEquity": 99096.00654930208, "qqqEquity": 100159.262327069, "forwardEquity": 100790.8029585973 }, { "date": "2026-10-12", "netEquity": 99695.57066265254, "qqqEquity": 100268.24141764354, "forwardEquity": 100184.38953017835 }, { "date": "2026-10-13", "netEquity": 98413.58712562468, "qqqEquity": 99746.50093843689, "forwardEquity": 101242.8526741041 }, { "date": "2026-10-14", "netEquity": 104173.07403275842, "qqqEquity": 101382.56157450043, "forwardEquity": 95471.9502418562 }, { "date": "2026-10-15", "netEquity": 102890.52227069068, "qqqEquity": 101391.16244526737, "forwardEquity": 96572.54029785718 } ], "journal": [ { "id": "post-44397450", "topic_id": "44397450", "published_utc": "2026-10-16T15:33:50Z", "authorAction": "小顾感叹如果不换仓会有至少两万差价。", "decision": "模型决定：不根据后悔金额调仓。", "status": "skipped", "statusLabel": "规则决定跳过", "execution": "没有模拟成交。", "reason": "反事实估计不是新买卖信号，也不是可核验的已实现盈亏。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44397450" }, { "id": "post-44395055", "topic_id": "44395055", "published_utc": "2026-10-16T14:34:42Z", "authorAction": "小顾自述买入 NBIS，并割掉一只亏损约 20% 的未具名股票。", "decision": "按反向规则，拟观察 NBIS 空头；未具名卖出不生成反向买入。", "status": "pending", "statusLabel": "待观察 · 未纳入回放", "execution": "最早可用入场点：美东 10/19 常规开盘。未录入模拟成交。", "reason": "发言已在 10/16 常规开盘之后；不追溯至作者自报买价，也不补造被卖股票。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44395055" }, { "id": "post-44382010", "topic_id": "44382010", "published_utc": "2026-10-16T05:31:42Z", "authorAction": "小顾自述买入 Google、AVGO、ORCL。", "decision": "按反向规则，拟观察 AVGO、ORCL 空头；Google 股份类别待核验。", "status": "pending", "statusLabel": "待观察 · 未纳入回放", "execution": "AVGO、ORCL 最早可用入场点：美东 10/16 常规开盘。未录入模拟成交。", "reason": "后续完整持有窗口未纳入；Google 的 GOOG/GOOGL 类别尚不明确。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44382010" }, { "id": "post-44377841", "topic_id": "44377841", "published_utc": "2026-10-16T01:38:52Z", "authorAction": "小顾自述此前以 109 卖出 BABA。", "decision": "按反向规则，拟观察 BABA 买入信号。", "status": "pending", "statusLabel": "待观察 · 未纳入回放", "execution": "最早可用入场点：美东 10/16 常规开盘。未录入模拟成交。", "reason": "本次完整行情截止 10/15；不能用披露前的卖价 109 当成跟随者买入价。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44377841" }, { "id": "post-44373983", "topic_id": "44373983", "published_utc": "2026-10-15T16:20:56Z", "authorAction": "小顾说清仓的票随后上涨。", "decision": "模型决定：跳过。", "status": "skipped", "statusLabel": "规则决定跳过", "execution": "没有模拟成交。", "reason": "无法核定完整卖出标的；评论和标签不替代本人明确操作。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44373983" }, { "id": "post-44344137", "topic_id": "44344137", "published_utc": "2026-10-14T23:53:14Z", "authorAction": "小顾自述部分持仓被强平。", "decision": "模型决定：跳过。", "status": "skipped", "statusLabel": "规则决定跳过", "execution": "没有模拟成交。", "reason": "缺少明确被卖出的标的；不能根据标签猜测反向买入对象。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44344137" }, { "id": "post-44286742", "topic_id": "44286742", "published_utc": "2026-10-12T14:05:06Z", "authorAction": "小顾加仓 ALB、UBER、AA、RKLB，并新开 CRWV、SKHX。", "decision": "模型决定：分别建立 ALB、UBER、AA、CRWV、SKHX 的理论空头，每只占初始本金 1/6。 RKLB 已有空仓，本次不重复建仓。", "status": "closed", "statusLabel": "历史回放已平仓", "execution": "美东 10/13 开盘建仓 → 10/15 收盘回补；本条 5 笔扣假设成本盈亏 +$2,852.39。", "reason": "模型当时没有这些多头仓位，因此反向动作是理论做空，不能称为卖掉已有持仓。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44286742" }, { "id": "post-44264322", "topic_id": "44264322", "published_utc": "2026-10-09T15:58:47Z", "authorAction": "小顾描述多只持仓亏损。", "decision": "模型决定：不新增操作。", "status": "skipped", "statusLabel": "规则决定跳过", "execution": "没有模拟成交。", "reason": "持仓亏损描述不是明确的新买卖指令。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44264322" }, { "id": "post-44240951", "topic_id": "44240951", "published_utc": "2026-10-08T14:40:05Z", "authorAction": "小顾说“再次出手 RKLB”，没有明确买卖方向。", "decision": "本情景推定为买入，模型决定：建立 RKLB 理论空头。", "status": "closed", "statusLabel": "历史回放已平仓", "execution": "美东 10/09 开盘 68.71 做空 → 10/13 收盘 64.22 回补；扣假设成本盈亏 +$1,043.46。", "reason": "这是放宽信号解释后的敏感性情景；持仓期间不重复响应 10/12 RKLB 加仓。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44240951" }, { "id": "post-44175896", "topic_id": "44175896", "published_utc": "2026-10-02T15:30:56Z", "authorAction": "小顾自述：西数 WDC 割肉卖出。", "decision": "模型决定：反向买入 WDC，使用初始本金的 1/6。", "status": "closed", "statusLabel": "历史回放已平仓", "execution": "美东 10/05 开盘 430.50 买入 → 10/07 收盘 405.42 退出；扣假设成本盈亏 −$1,005.33。", "reason": "明确卖出信号可识别标的；按下一个常规开盘执行，持有三交易日。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44175896" } ] }, { "id": "no_skhx", "label": "剔除杠杆 ETF", "description": "从明确买卖版本删除 SKHX（每日 2 倍 ETF），该 1/6 槽位闲置，不向其他标的重新分配。2 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"gross_pnl": -1447.8511530398316, "commission": 2.0, "execution_friction": 31.885482180293508, "borrow_days": 0, "borrow_cost": 0.0, "net_pnl": -1481.7366352201252 } ], "daily": [ { "date": "2026-10-02", "netEquity": 100000.0, "qqqEquity": 100000.0, "forwardEquity": 100000.0 }, { "date": "2026-10-05", "netEquity": 100413.61478900503, "qqqEquity": 100134.68759591646, "forwardEquity": 99548.7687726388 }, { "date": "2026-10-06", "netEquity": 99228.94579945799, "qqqEquity": 100211.64317964457, "forwardEquity": 100731.15465716302 }, { "date": "2026-10-07", "netEquity": 98994.67363530779, "qqqEquity": 100150.86403772158, "forwardEquity": 100929.75231094776 }, { "date": "2026-10-08", "netEquity": 98994.67363530779, "qqqEquity": 100150.86403772158, "forwardEquity": 100929.75231094776 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "netEquity": 98994.67363530779, "qqqEquity": 100150.86403772158, "forwardEquity": 100929.75231094776 }, { "date": "2026-10-12", "netEquity": 98994.67363530779, "qqqEquity": 100150.86403772158, "forwardEquity": 100929.75231094776 }, { "date": "2026-10-13", "netEquity": 98478.99165067197, "qqqEquity": 99594.17155180653, "forwardEquity": 101257.35210380275 }, { "date": "2026-10-14", "netEquity": 103395.40027403756, "qqqEquity": 101230.23218787009, "forwardEquity": 96329.52795532302 }, { "date": "2026-10-15", "netEquity": 102830.54510183749, "qqqEquity": 101238.83305863703, "forwardEquity": 96714.38641967541 } ], "journal": [ { "id": "post-44397450", "topic_id": "44397450", "published_utc": "2026-10-16T15:33:50Z", "authorAction": "小顾感叹如果不换仓会有至少两万差价。", "decision": "模型决定：不根据后悔金额调仓。", "status": "skipped", "statusLabel": "规则决定跳过", "execution": "没有模拟成交。", "reason": "反事实估计不是新买卖信号，也不是可核验的已实现盈亏。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44397450" }, { "id": "post-44395055", "topic_id": "44395055", "published_utc": "2026-10-16T14:34:42Z", "authorAction": "小顾自述买入 NBIS，并割掉一只亏损约 20% 的未具名股票。", "decision": "按反向规则，拟观察 NBIS 空头；未具名卖出不生成反向买入。", "status": "pending", "statusLabel": "待观察 · 未纳入回放", "execution": "最早可用入场点：美东 10/19 常规开盘。未录入模拟成交。", "reason": "发言已在 10/16 常规开盘之后；不追溯至作者自报买价，也不补造被卖股票。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44395055" }, { "id": "post-44382010", "topic_id": "44382010", "published_utc": "2026-10-16T05:31:42Z", "authorAction": "小顾自述买入 Google、AVGO、ORCL。", "decision": "按反向规则，拟观察 AVGO、ORCL 空头；Google 股份类别待核验。", "status": "pending", "statusLabel": "待观察 · 未纳入回放", "execution": "AVGO、ORCL 最早可用入场点：美东 10/16 常规开盘。未录入模拟成交。", "reason": "后续完整持有窗口未纳入；Google 的 GOOG/GOOGL 类别尚不明确。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44382010" }, { "id": "post-44377841", "topic_id": "44377841", "published_utc": "2026-10-16T01:38:52Z", "authorAction": "小顾自述此前以 109 卖出 BABA。", "decision": "按反向规则，拟观察 BABA 买入信号。", "status": "pending", "statusLabel": "待观察 · 未纳入回放", "execution": "最早可用入场点：美东 10/16 常规开盘。未录入模拟成交。", "reason": "本次完整行情截止 10/15；不能用披露前的卖价 109 当成跟随者买入价。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44377841" }, { "id": "post-44373983", "topic_id": "44373983", "published_utc": "2026-10-15T16:20:56Z", "authorAction": "小顾说清仓的票随后上涨。", "decision": "模型决定：跳过。", "status": "skipped", "statusLabel": "规则决定跳过", "execution": "没有模拟成交。", "reason": "无法核定完整卖出标的；评论和标签不替代本人明确操作。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44373983" }, { "id": "post-44344137", "topic_id": "44344137", "published_utc": "2026-10-14T23:53:14Z", "authorAction": "小顾自述部分持仓被强平。", "decision": "模型决定：跳过。", "status": "skipped", "statusLabel": "规则决定跳过", "execution": "没有模拟成交。", "reason": "缺少明确被卖出的标的；不能根据标签猜测反向买入对象。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44344137" }, { "id": "post-44286742", "topic_id": "44286742", "published_utc": "2026-10-12T14:05:06Z", "authorAction": "小顾加仓 ALB、UBER、AA、RKLB，并新开 CRWV、SKHX。", "decision": "模型决定：分别建立 ALB、UBER、AA、RKLB、CRWV 的理论空头，每只占初始本金 1/6。 SKHX 因杠杆 ETF 范围规则跳过，1/6 槽位闲置。", "status": "closed", "statusLabel": "历史回放已平仓", "execution": "美东 10/13 开盘建仓 → 10/15 收盘回补；本条 5 笔扣假设成本盈亏 +$3,835.87。", "reason": "模型当时没有这些多头仓位，因此反向动作是理论做空，不能称为卖掉已有持仓。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44286742" }, { "id": "post-44264322", "topic_id": "44264322", "published_utc": "2026-10-09T15:58:47Z", "authorAction": "小顾描述多只持仓亏损。", "decision": "模型决定：不新增操作。", "status": "skipped", "statusLabel": "规则决定跳过", "execution": "没有模拟成交。", "reason": "持仓亏损描述不是明确的新买卖指令。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44264322" }, { "id": "post-44240951", "topic_id": "44240951", "published_utc": "2026-10-08T14:40:05Z", "authorAction": "小顾说“再次出手 RKLB”，没有明确买卖方向。", "decision": "模型决定：跳过，不根据猜测建立反向仓位。", "status": "skipped", "statusLabel": "规则决定跳过", "execution": "没有模拟成交，也不占用资金槽位。", "reason": "方向证据不足。可切换“含模糊信号”查看不同解释的影响。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44240951" }, { "id": "post-44175896", "topic_id": "44175896", "published_utc": "2026-10-02T15:30:56Z", "authorAction": "小顾自述：西数 WDC 割肉卖出。", "decision": "模型决定：反向买入 WDC，使用初始本金的 1/6。", "status": "closed", "statusLabel": "历史回放已平仓", "execution": "美东 10/05 开盘 430.50 买入 → 10/07 收盘 405.42 退出；扣假设成本盈亏 −$1,005.33。", "reason": "明确卖出信号可识别标的；按下一个常规开盘执行，持有三交易日。", "source_url": "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44175896" } ] } ], "journalAsOf": "2026-10-16", "decisionMode": "2026-10-17 事后按模型规则生成；不是原帖当时作出的真实投资决定。", "comparison": { "label": "小顾同向模拟", "description": "以相同公开信号、入退场时间、初始本金及 1/6 固定槽位，逐笔反转反向组合的交易方向；佣金与执行摩擦不变，借券成本按各自空头重新计算。", "boundary": "同向模拟不是小顾真实账户收益。WDC 卖出信号在同向模型中视为理论做空，并非重建其原有持仓；两组做空均未核验历史借券可用性。" }, "batch": { "oneDayGrossPct": -1.563816250815628, "threeDayGrossPct": 5.354608394717753 }, "costs": { "commissionPerSide": 1, "frictionPctPerSide": 0.1, "borrowAnnualPct": 5 } }